Synergy-Based Econometric Assessment of SME Export Potential in Azerbaijan

Abstract

This study develops and applies a synergy-based econometric model to evaluate the export potential of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector. The research integrates human capital, investment, and resource efficiency indicators to measure their interactive effects on export performance during the period 2013–2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with statistical diagnostics (R², F-test, Durbin–Watson, and VIF), the analysis reveals that the interaction between human capital and resource efficiency (X₄ × X₆) produces the strongest and most statistically significant synergy effect. This finding empirically confirms that SME export growth is not driven by individual factors alone but by their mutual and complementary effects. The results also show that technological modernization and investment expansion play a positive, though lagged, role in shaping long-term export competitiveness. The study concludes that coordinated improvements in human capital, innovation, and resource utilization can accelerate non-oil export diversification. Policy recommendations include the promotion of export-oriented vocational education, innovation subsidies, regional industrial clusters, and green export strategies aligned with ESG principles. The synergy-based framework proposed in this paper provides a new analytical perspective for designing adaptive and resilience-oriented SME export policies in developing economies.